[harrenhal]

Hello, my friend and I just spent all night analyzing what we think are the moves that present the Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement, or BATNA, for each house in the first turn of the base game.

These moves represent the best line of play assuming that all other players will also be following their most beneficial line of play. If someone strikes out on a suicide strategy, well, your only hope is that they aren't attacking you first - although these moves are designed to give you the most flexibility SHOULD you become the target of short-sighted strategies or alliances.

Please ask questions and offer suggestions for alternatives. Thanks and I really appreciated everyone's feedback.

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Turn 1

Action Phase: Orders Revealed
Tyrell - Redwine Straights Support (0)
Lannister - The Golden Sound Defend (+2)
Greyjoys - Greywater Watch Consolidate Power (0)

The Raven:
If Attack does not look imminent from Greyjoys in Ironman's Bay, switch to Support in The Golden Sound

Action Phase a: Resolve Raid Orders
none

Action Phase b: Resolve March Orders
Round 1 -
Baratheon - Kingswood to Dragonstone (-1)(f1)
Lannister - Lannisport to Stoney Sept (-1)(k1, f1)
Stark - Winterfell to White Harbor (-1)(k1, f1)
Tyrell - Dornish Marches to Highgarden (-1)(f1)
Greyjoy - Pyke to Seagard (-1)(k1) and Flint's Finger (-1)(f1)

Round 2 -
Baratheon - Dragonstone to Crackclaw Point (0)(k1, f1) and Storms End (0)(f1)
Lannister - Stoney Sept to Harrenhal (+1)(f1) and Riverrun (+1)(f1)
Stark - White Harbor to Moat Cailin (0)(k1) and Widow's Watch (0)(f1) and Karhold (0)(f1)
Tyrell - Highgarden to The Reach (+1)(f1) and Oldtown (+1)(f1)
Greyjoy - Ironman's Bay to Sunset Sea (+1)(s1)

Round 3 -
Baratheon - Shipbreaker Bay to Summer Sea (+1)(s1)
Lannister - No march orders left.
Stark - The Shivering Sea to The Narrow Sea (+1)(s1)
Tyrell - No March orders left.
Greyjoy - No March orders left.