An alternate-history worldbuilding exercise for you...

I just got back from visiting Exit Mundi again. I was trying to get the mojo back for a sci-fi setting, since I'm not getting very far with the sword-and-sorcery world of Alastor Blackdawn. Part of the problem is the fact that I can come up with all kinds of ideas for something for a regular character to do in a modern setting (since I am first and foremost a citizen of the modern world), but I am at a loss to figure out what a regular character would do in the ancient-world/Dark-Ages setting I was designing for Alastor.

I had mentioned in a post from way back (at least several months back) that I would probably use the La Palma Megatsunami (http://www.xs4all.nl/~mke/tsunami.htm) as part of the backhistory for a cyberpunk-style setting, and had already thought through some of the effects such a disaster would have (for example, the government would most certainly have to move to the west, and cities like Phoenix, Denver and Los Angeles would become the new urban centers of America).

But as I looked through the info on this megatsunami, I came across a very chilling fact that I hadn't given much thought to up to this point -- the Cumbre Vieja volcano that is at the heart of all this blew its top in 1949, and part of the island sank only a part of the way (roughly four meters) into the Atlantic Ocean. Geologists did not realize until the nineties just how close the La Palma megatsunami came to wiping out the East Coast that day.

That got me to thinking: what if the Cumbre Vieja eruption of 1949 had resulted in the complete sinking of that part of the island into the Atlantic and triggered the La Palma disaster? How would an America and Europe of the late 40s have responded? And what would have followed in the aftermath of the disaster, both in terms of America and Europe and the rest of the world?

[Mithras]

Originally posted by NPC rbingham2000
That got me to thinking: what if the Cumbre Vieja eruption of 1949 had resulted in the complete sinking of that part of the island into the Atlantic and triggered the La Palma disaster? ?

I don't think there's a whole lot of people out there who know about the Cumbre Vieja volcano or its potential cataclysmic effects on the E Coast.

But then I do watch an inordinate amount of geology TV!

I suspect you want to read a somewhat less sensationalistic account of what might happen. I mean, sure, a megatsunami will probably be on the cards, but I strongly doubt that it'll start off as a 650m high wall of water that stretches right across the Atlantic like that website describes - it only gets high when it goes over shallow water. Most tsunami out in the open sea - en route to a shore - are quite low in height, maybe only a few metres tall at most. If you were on a ship somewhere over the deeper parts of the Atlantic you probably would barely notice going over one. However, they do really start to build up in height as they enter shallow water though (ie the continental slope) - so the end result will still probably be rather unpleasant either way.

As for the alternative history... well, lots of governments will have plugged lots of money into post-war reconstruction in Europe, only to have it swept away (along with a sizeable portion of the population). America would be left reeling, of course.

I think the clincher would be the USSR, which would largely be unaffected by the tsunami. If it wanted to make any kind of post-war move to invade anyone, it could probably get away with it, but it depends on whether or not the Soviets would be just as appalled by the MASSIVE damage (millions dead) or if they'd be cruel heartless bastards and kick the world while it's down instead. Depending on which way they go, they might help everyone out or just steamroller in.

I also doubt that the Korean War and McArthyism and all that would happen.

[joewolz]

My Dear Doctor, I have to disagree with you about the Soviet Union attacking anyone after a disaster like that...especially in 1949.

Russia came dangerously close to completely collapsing in the late forites and early fifties, due mainly to the war completely bankrupting the country. Stalin then began campaign after campaign of ruthless Five Year Plans, completely ignoring the rest of the world. In fact, IIRC, Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech was given in 1948, a time when the USSR wanted NOTHING to do with the rest of the world. Stalin also ruthlessly controlled all imports and exports.

I think the USSR would have completely ignored a huge wave taking out the East coast of the US, they would have won the cold war, though. No doubt about that, they would have moved in immediately to "help their friends in europe." This would have virually destroyed the NATO alliance, and led to the Soviets dominating the United Nations. Most of Europe would, for their own protection, move to join the Warsaw Pact.

I'm sure there's more I could add, but I have to go see La Rondine, and I don't have time to write any more.

[AusJeb]

If I am remembering this right, a local geologist was involved in the calculation of the La Palma potential, and he was very surprised when his academic paper stirred up so much attention from media outlets along the East Coast.

Okay, so on to alternative history.

Late 40s, U.S. starts to fund the Marshall Plan for the rebuilding of Europe. After the La Palma tsunami, U.S. has to spend money rebuilding itself. The U.S. also cannot afford to sustain the nuclear arms race, and the H-bomb program is suspended.

The Soviet Union, meanwhile, explodes its A-bomb in '49, and uses the La Palma tsunami as an example of capitalism's weaknesses. In other countries around the world, communist parties increase in power, particularly in a Europe that unsupported by U.S. aid and trade. When the Korean War occurs, North Korea wins. The first of the dominos to fall.

In the U.S., President Truman marshalls the resources of the nation to rebuild the East Coast with a massive public works campaign modeled on the New Deal and mobilization for WWII. The U.S. capital is temporarily relocated to Chicago. In 52, Truman runs for re-electon and wins by a landslide. State borders are adjusted to consolidate the states of Maryland & Delaware and Pennsylvannia and New Jersey. Alaska and Hawai'i are named states to keep total at 48. Sooner than expected, the capital returns to its new home of New Columbia near the former site of Baltimore. Much of the former site of D.C. now being submerged underneath the Chesapeake and with Capitol Hill now part of a new National Memorial along the shores of the bay.

While the Communist Party does make gains, most the U.S. is united in a patriotic spirit. Ironically, the devastation in Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Maryland helps to increase the pace gains in the Civil Rights Movement as all Americans pull together in rebuilding the country.

The Interstate Highway system is initiated to help rebuild the East Coast, making it easier to move materials. Train travel remains the dominate means of inter-city travel.

In 54, Guatemala expropriates lands owned by the United Fruit Company and other foreign-owned companies, generating calls in the U.S. for a military expedition to counter the spread of communism in the Americas. The President and Congress, however, pursue diplomatic outreach to limit the influence of communists in Guatemala rather than undertake the expense of a military expedition.

Also in 54, Ho Chi Minh defeats the French at Dien Bien Phu, triggering the French withdrawl from Indo-China.

During the Suez Crisis of Oct 56, President Truman, in the interest of solidarity with fellow NATO members, remains quiet when the British and French send troops to the Suez to prevent President Nassar from nationalizing the canal.

In Nov 56, Eisenhower is elected president. In the late 50s, the U.S. is begining to again look beyond its borders. Europe is rebuilding but in the shadow of a dominate Soviet Union and active communist parties throughout Western Europe, particularly in Italy. China dominates Asia, with its client states of Korea and Vietnam. The Soviet Union and China, however, participate in escalating border skirmishes. Japan is slowly rebuilding and has increasing trade ties with the U.S., Australia, and Britain.

How does this relate to gaming?

This is a very different setting for Cold War spying. The Cold War is still very much in place. Only, it appears that the Soviet Union and China have the advantage. The U.S. and Europe are rebuilding, but are having to act much more as equals. Cuba devastated by the tsunami and the diminished trade with the U.S. may fall to communisim earlier or not at all.

Jeb

Originally posted by joewolz
My Dear Doctor, I have to disagree with you about the Soviet Union attacking anyone after a disaster like that...especially in 1949.

Russia came dangerously close to completely collapsing in the late forites and early fifties, due mainly to the war completely bankrupting the country. Stalin then began campaign after campaign of ruthless Five Year Plans, completely ignoring the rest of the world. In fact, IIRC, Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech was given in 1948, a time when the USSR wanted NOTHING to do with the rest of the world. Stalin also ruthlessly controlled all imports and exports.

I think the USSR would have completely ignored a huge wave taking out the East coast of the US, they would have won the cold war, though. No doubt about that, they would have moved in immediately to "help their friends in europe." This would have virually destroyed the NATO alliance, and led to the Soviets dominating the United Nations. Most of Europe would, for their own protection, move to join the Warsaw Pact.

Good point, I'd completely forgotten about the Five Year Plans (my post WWII history is a somewhat rusty).

Taking out the eastern US and much of coastal western Europe would probably have levelled the economic playing field in later years somewhat though.

BTW, there's another link here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon..._tsunami.shtml

[JDCorley]

Doesn't an enormous tsunami in the middle of the Atlantic mean that the lost continent of Atlantis is resurfacing and Ike will have to make an alliance with the Giant Dolphin Riders of the Atlantean Resistance to keep the Soviets and their partners, the Draxxon Overlords Of The Undersea from overrunning the world?

Originally posted by Evil Dr Ganymede
I suspect you want to read a somewhat less sensationalistic account of what might happen. I mean, sure, a megatsunami will probably be on the cards, but I strongly doubt that it'll start off as a 650m high wall of water that stretches right across the Atlantic like that website describes - it only gets high when it goes over shallow water. Most tsunami out in the open sea - en route to a shore - are quite low in height, maybe only a few metres tall at most. If you were on a ship somewhere over the deeper parts of the Atlantic you probably would barely notice going over one. However, they do really start to build up in height as they enter shallow water though (ie the continental slope) - so the end result will still probably be rather unpleasant either way.

Exit Mundi can get rather sensationalistic, true. One poster on one of the threads I posted in for the Gamma World thing shot down the notion that the Kuiper Belt was the stationary disk near the outer planets that Exit Mundi made it out to be, so a lot of the stuff on there can be classified as "grain of salt" material.

But one thing it's got going for it is that it at least recognizes the crackpot stuff (such as Planet X and the axis-shift scenario) for what it is, and that it points to events in geological and other history to back up most of their scenarios. For example, according to recorded geological data, there were at least three of these megatsunamis in Earth's history: at least several on Hawaii's Oahu Island (the last big one being about two million years ago), one on Cape Verde Island eighty thousand years ago, and one on Réunion Island four thousand years ago.

Originally posted by Evil Dr Ganymede
As for the alternative history... well, lots of governments will have plugged lots of money into post-war reconstruction in Europe, only to have it swept away (along with a sizeable portion of the population). America would be left reeling, of course.

Word. The economic and political centers of the US at the time were on the East Coast. A megatsunami striking without warning (since I doubt very seriously that volcanology was very advanced back then) would all but obliterate both. The central and western US would be unaffected, but the people there would have to fend for themselves without the aid of the federal government.

I can see the state governments having to see to the people's welfare themselves until a new federal government can be established. Depending on how bad things get, the military may have to step in to enforce the law.

Originally posted by Evil Dr Ganymede
I think the clincher would be the USSR, which would largely be unaffected by the tsunami. If it wanted to make any kind of post-war move to invade anyone, it could probably get away with it, but it depends on whether or not the Soviets would be just as appalled by the MASSIVE damage (millions dead) or if they'd be cruel heartless bastards and kick the world while it's down instead. Depending on which way they go, they might help everyone out or just steamroller in.

As joewolz pointed out, the Soviet economy was in very bad shape after World War II (they had to battle the Nazis for four long and hard years, which can wreak havoc on any economy), and it would be several years in rebuilding before the Soviets could kick up the old war machine again. Once they started it up again though, the Cold War would probably be theirs for the taking, especially given that Stalin was a ruthless son of a bitch.

Originally posted by Evil Dr Ganymede
I also doubt that the Korean War and McCarthyism and all that would happen.

I'll have to agree with you on both of these.

[Partridge]

On the idea Chinese client states I waffle. Both nations are renown for their idependence. Sure they might end up junior partners in an alliance but are just as likely to end up in disputes with the Chinese.

[jackinabox]

apart the massive loss of life could be a complete withdrawl of US interests abroad. Given the huge capital expenditures required domestically, its possible the US adopts a much insular agenda. Military troops are removed from Europe & Asia to assist with the enormous rescue, rebuilding and defence of the East Coast.

I could see the capital moved to the midwest, perhaps somewhere in Illnois, Ohio or Michigan. A disaster of this proportion would probably slow the migration of people's to all coastlines around the world.

The US would also experience another massive depression. Manufacturing would also move South & West in much greater numbers probably pushing Civil rights movement ahead. The US would recover, but probably not dominate the world economy like it eventually did.